New Jersey Devils Have Officially Turned a Corner
When the New Jersey Devils started the season 9-2-0 and ended up going 16-7-4 in their first 25 games there were a lot of people predicting it was unsustainable. The reality is that if the underlying numbers in that initial stretch continued it likely was unsustainable.
So the #njdevils were 16-7-4 with underlying numbers that were poor but rode a high PDO. 12-9-4 with numbers that are towards the top of the league. pic.twitter.com/vDDVlUmRCF
— Tyler Kelley (@DocKelley41) February 5, 2018
The above chart tells two different tales. One would expect the top team, with a 16-7-4 record, to not be nearly as successful. Fortunately for the Devils, they rode a high PDO to a great start. Ordinarily that would be an issue but it seems that despite slowing down a little the underlying numbers are in the Devils favor.
In the past 25 games, the Devils have a 12-9-4 record, but the numbers are better than that. They’re 11th in CF%, 5th in FF%, 2rd in SF%, 13th in SCF%, and 3rd in HDCF%. A couple goals overturned and some below average goaltending really torpedoed that 25 game stretch.
The signs are good, however. With great underlying possession numbers and a team that is getting healthy the Devils look poised for a good second half. Even with average goaltending if the numbers stay the same this team should have a great second half.
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The first line has been outstanding all year, but now it appears the middle six is getting hot. Coach John Hynes has found the right combinations placing Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, and Kyle Palmieri together as the 2nd line and Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac, and Stefan Noesen have formed a dangerous third line.
Keith Kinkaid, who had an absolutely awful first half, seems to already have turned that around. Kinkaid has won three in a row after the All-Star break.
The Devils just called up recent addition Eddie Lack and are both Marcus Johansson and Cory Schneider are working towards getting healthy.
It seemed likely that the Devils early success was unsustainable. Fortunately for New Jersey the underlying numbers point in a different direction now. This 2nd place team now actually looks like a 2nd place team.
All numbers are from Natural Stat Trick.