Anyone who’s watched the New Jersey Devils last 20 or so games knows how good Keith Kinkaid has been. That certainly wasn’t the case at the start of the year. Going into December, Cory Schneider was one of the leagues best goalies, top 4 in just about any category, while Kinkaid was essentially operating just above replacement level.
This chart from Cole Anderson, @crowdscoutsprts on Twitter, really visualizes the Devils goaltending situation well. You can find more of his stats here. As you can see, Kinkaid was riding the replacement level line to start the season with Schneider right at the top of the league. Around Schneider’s injury in December that all changed. Kinkaid and Schneider’s games essentially flip flopped.
And there you have it. With Kinkaid's recent play he's surpassed Schneider on the year. https://t.co/VaED22q0gH pic.twitter.com/4cMhErMvEQ
— Tyler Kelley (@DocKelley41) March 26, 2018
For a more in depth look at this viz or to actually be able to see the numbers that accompany the bars go here.
There were heated debates (primarily from me) for a while over which goalie the Devils needed to ride down the stretch, but Kinkaid has put that to rest. I was even saying that if the Devils were going to get to the playoffs or be successful it was going to require a Cory Schneider that was on top of his game. That’s certainly not the case anymore. Keith Kinkaid, along with Taylor Hall, is currently dragging this New Jersey Devil’s team to the post season.
Pinpointing the Change
It’s hard to say exactly what changed in Kinkaid’s game. In a recent game broadcast, there was discussion about Kinkaid recognizing the need for more sleep so maybe that can be attributed to it, but the reality is he’s tracking the puck insanely well right now. Earlier in the year he struggled with both LDSV% and MDSV%. He was around league average in HDSV%.
He’s completely turned around his early struggles. Kinkaid is at his best when he’s playing an aggressive game that’s exactly what he’s been doing.
This sequence here is something the Devils desperately needed. Middle of the second against arguably the best team in the league and Kinkaid makes a massive save in a high danger area, he then tracks the rebound and bats it out of mid air to clear it himself. That’s a goalie who’s zeroed in.
Kinkaid’s Net to Lose
With seven games left, and only one of those being the second half of a back to back, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kinkaid got 6 of 7 or all 7 starts.
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At this point Kinkaid has passed Schneider in dSV%, GSAA/30 shots faced, and overall GSAA. With a GSAA/30 of .22 Kinkaid is essentially stopping almost a ¼ of a goal every 30 shots. Kinkaid’s biggest struggles were with MDSV% earlier in the year and he’s pulled his MDSV% to within .36 of Schneider and surpassed him in both HDSV% and LDSV%.
These numbers are essentially despite his slow start. Saying this bounce back is impressive is a massive understatement. To simplify the recovery we’ll just take a look at a stat as simple as SV%. Kinkaid’s All Situation SV% through his first 21 games was 89.1%. His most recent 14 games he’s posted a 93.1 SV%. That’s an insane improvement and he’s carried this Devils team through a crucial stretch of the season. With Cory Schneider seriously struggling Keith Kinkaid has elevated his game to the next level through a crucial stretch for the Devils.
Kinkaid earned his time in the starters net and there’s no reason for that to change. As long as Kinkaid is playing at this level it’s his net.