The New Jersey Devils are officially in offseason mode. Over the next few days, we will look at 20 potential free agents they could look at signing. Today, we look at the Washington Capitals John Carlson.
We’re finally here. After going through 18 free agents the New Jersey Devils could target in the offseason, we’ve arrived at one of two main prizes. This is the one most fans want more than anything. It’s the Washington Capitals John Carlson.
Tonight, Carlson helped take the Capitals to their first Stanley Cup Finals of the Alexander Ovechkin era. He’s been a true number one defenseman on a team that’s fighting for a championship.
Carlson is currently playing in the best season of his career. It’s not even close, especially on the offensive side. He has 15 goals, a career high, and 53 assists, also a career high. He came into this season topping off at 55 points in a season, and he blew that out of the water.
One could look at this two ways. An optimist will say that he’s a 28-year-old defenseman that’s finally hitting his prime. He can easily continue this production no matter where he goes. A pessimist will say he played this well in a contract year to get the most money possible.
He’s even been great in the playoffs. He has 16 points in 19 games. That is only going to help during contract negotiations this offseason.
It’s hard to fathom the Capitals having any chance to re-sign their star defenseman. Even if the salary cap goes up to $80 million, the Caps would only have about $13 million in space. They have to re-sign Tom Wilson and they will likely try and re-sign Devante Smith-Pelley. Let’s be conservative and say they sign for a combined $5 million next season. That leaves them with $8 million in space.
Carlson will take up all of that, if not more. I believe he’s going to sign for between $7 million and $8 million over a five to seven year deal. The Caps have five contracts that pay at least $5.75 million, including Ovechkin’s which comes with a cap hit of $9.538 million per season.
That helps the Devils, because without a major trade the Capitals have no chance to re-sign him.
Still, the market for Carlson will be vast. Almost every team with cap space will make a call to Carlson’s agent. That competition will drive the price through the roof.
There’s a lot of pause when it comes to just how much Carlson will get paid. If he makes north of $8 million, he becomes one of the highest paid defensemen in the league. P.K. Subban currently has the only defensive cap hit that’s north of $8 million.
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The only thing that can hurt Carlson is what’s looming next season. Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are all free agents in 2019. One could argue all three are better players than Carlson, and they’re all available a year from July 1st. A lot can happen between now and then, but teams may be looking ahead.
The Devils are always a team that looks ahead. The future is what Ray Shero looks towards with every move. That’s why Kevin Shattenkirk became too rich for his blood last season, and that worked out beautifully. If Carlson’s contract goes towards the insane, Shero may wait just one more year.
Me personally, I’m on the fence. There’s a good chance the Devils could lost out on all three defensemen next year, then they’re left with nothing. Carlson is not Shattenkirk. He’s a much better player with a proven track record. He’s not Karlsson, Doughty or even Ekman-Larsson, but he’s available now. He brings a guaranteed upgrade that will last for at least half a decade. Pairing him with Sami Vatanen gives the Devils the most legit top line they’ve had since most fans can remember. Let’s see how this one plays out.