New Jersey Devils Free Agency Profile: Paul Stastny

The New Jersey Devils are officially in offseason mode. Over the next few days, we will look at 20 potential free agents they could look at signing. Today, we look at the Winnipeg Jets Paul Stastny.

The New Jersey Devils have two positions where they can really improve over this offseason. One is obviously a top-line defenseman. That is the team’s most glaring need. The other isn’t so glaring. The Devils could use a second-line center to round out the offense.

New Jersey spent most of the season with Pavel Zacha as their second-line center. After going into the season as a favorite to win the top-line job, Zacha once again disappointed. Sure, he was moved all around the lineup, and never really had a chance to get used to his linemates, but it was clear there are positions that would work better for the 21 year old.

That opens up a spot for Ray Shero to spend some money. That money could go to center Paul Stastny.

Stastny is an interesting free agent in this year’s class. In most years, he could be the most coveted free agent on the market, but with John Tavares looming, he’s a backup plan for many teams.

That doesn’t mean he won’t get paid, because a team is going to pay Stastny well. However, the advanced analytics show he’s not going to get paid as well as one might think. Matt Cane’s contract predictor, which we’ve been using to see how much some of the best free agents may make, show that Stastny is in line to make $5.41 million over three seasons.

That’s a price I think Shero would be willing to pay for a legitimate second-line center that can round out this offense. The question becomes, is Stastny that type of player?

When looking at Stastny’s statistics, one might be surprised what you see. I know I was. The 32 year old only scored 16 goals this past season. It seemed like he scored so much more than that. In fact, he hasn’t broken 20 goals since he was with the Colorado Avalanche in 2014.

That’s especially strange, because he should have been in his prime with the St. Louis Blues. When looking at his stats, his prime was actually his first two seasons. He set a career high in his rookie year with 28 goals, and the next season he recorded 71 points.

If he was still scoring at that pace, this would be a no-brainer contract. However, since signing with the Blues he never broke 50 points. He did hit 53 points this season split between the Blues and the Jets. Sure, only Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier broke 50 points with the Devils this season, but that shouldn’t force the Devils to break the bank just to do it. The player has to fit the present and the future.

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The more I look at what Stastny did on the ice, the less I want him. Especially if the Winnipeg Jets are willing to get in a bidding war, it may not be worth it to sign him. If the salary cap does indeed go up, then the Devils would have plenty of room to add a contract like Stastny’s, but it’s scary to think of his downside. Three years of a player who’s only contributing 40-50 points now, and could drop off, may look like a knock against Shero’s pristine record.

Stastny may make more sense elsewhere. The Devils aren’t desperate for a center. They can try Zacha one more time, or see what Michael McLeod brings to the table. They can also move Blake Coleman up to the second line and see if he can continue to produce like he did late in the season.

At the end of the day, this is a pass. There’s a reason Stastny isn’t getting the buzz other free agents are getting. He’s right at the edge of his prime, and will look to cash out while he still can. His skills are at their peak, and the upside is not where it could be. Stastny will do well elsewhere, but the risk-reward projection is not as high as the free agents Shero will likely target.

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