Should New Jersey Devils Hit the Panic Button on Pavel Zacha?

Looking back at the 2015 draft for the New Jersey Devils is not advisable.  Saying it did not go well is a massive understatement at this point.  Looking at players taken after Pavel Zacha was selected at six overall is not fun.  Players like Ivan Provorov, Zach Werenski, Timo Meier, and Mikko Rantanen.  Mathew Barzal fell to 16 overall and we all know what kind of year he had.  Recently Nick Villano wrote about trade scenarios and included Zacha.  I’ve been pretty vocal in my support for Zacha and barring landing John Tavares in free agency, I see almost no scenario where trading him with his value at its lowest makes any sense.

Before we look at last year and why it should give New Jersey Devils fans hope, I’d like to provide a cautionary tale.  Let’s look at Nino Niederreiter as our example.  Niederreiter was the 5^th overall pick of the New York Islanders in 2010 after putting up 60 points in 65 games for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL.

He was given a shot in the NHL in his Draft+1 year and then sent back down to the WHL.  The following year he was given 55 games at the NHL level where he produced 1 point.  He spent his draft+3 year in the AHL with Bridgeport where he posted 50 points in 74 games.  This was Niederreiter’s age 20 season.  For comparison sake, Pavel Zacha just recently turned 21 and was age 20 for most of the 2017-18 season.

The Islanders dealt Niederreiter that offseason for Cal Clutterbuck and a 3^rd round pick (Eamon McAdam who spent 2017-18 mostly in the ECHL).  The return for a top 5 pick was a 4^th liner and a 3^rd round pick. Niederreiter is a fixture in Minnesota’s top six now and has posted seasons of 36, 37, 43, 57, and 32 points. 

In that same time frame, Clutterbuck has had seasons with 19 points, 16 points, 23, 20, and 18. So now that we’ve established that moving Zacha with his value at its likely lowest point is likely a terrible decision, let’s get into why he’s going to break out next year and what the Devils can do to ensure that it happens.

Coming into 2017-18, expectations were high for Zacha.  It was expected that he’d carve himself a role on the first line centering Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri.  As we all know, that didn’t happen. Even with the absence of Travis Zajac, it still took Zacha a while to earn himself the 2^nd center role.  Finally, in the final half of the season it seemed the Devils four centers had entrenched roles.  Hischier as the 1C, Zacha 2C, Zajac as a shutdown 3C, and Boyle filling his role as the 4^th line center.

Still, 25 points in 69 games is a disappointment when you’re discussing a former top 10 pick.  However, I’m not concerned.  There’s a lot that goes into making a player successful and being paired with quality linemates is one of the biggest.

Zacha’s Most Common Wingers

Looking at this chart, you can see Zacha’s wingers sorted by the TOI that they spent together this year and their CF% for an idea of how they performed together. You’ll notice there’s a lack of consistency.  While Zacha spent a majority of his time with Miles Wood and Kyle Palmieri, he really didn’t have any one linemate he played the entire year with. 

As you can see, he and Wood performed well together. In fact, the trio of Wood-Zacha-Palmieri was a really effective 2^nd line for the Devils posting a CF% of 54.49 in their nearly 80 minutes playing together at 5v5.

There are some clear issues for Zacha. He and Bratt didn’t pair well and obviously with Jimmy Hayes on his wing he struggled as well as with Brian Gibbons.  Gibbons and Hayes are UFA’s that are unlikely to return. The reality is, Bratt actually had a negative impact on Hall and Hischier’s 5v5 CF%’s as well. This isn’t just an isolated incident with Zacha.

I wanted to look at Zacha in comparison to centers drafted after him in 2015 and how they performed with and without certain linemates.  Let’s start in saying that Zacha and Hall had a small sample size of 105 minutes together, but in that time they were more than effective.  A CF% of 52.53 and a HDCF% of nearly 70.

Before we get too into this, I don’t want anyone confusing what I’m saying as Zacha is better than Barzal.  I couldn’t make that argument if I tried.  What I want this article to convey is the impact that having a really talented winger can have on a young center.

Young Centers With and Without Their Star Wingers

This chart here has the breakdown of Mathew Barzal with and without Jordan Eberle, Travis Konecny with and without Claude Giroux, and Pavel Zacha with and without Taylor Hall.

Here’s the biggest takeaway:

If you remove these all-star wingers from their young centers lines the centers struggle.  Barzal and Zacha post nearly identical CF%’s of 48.86 and 48.17 while Konecny’s drops to 45.17.  Of the three, Zacha actually posts the highest SCF% and HDCF% away from his all star winger. 

So, we’ve now established what most people already know, removing a center from his all-star winger will negatively impact his performance.  How does this apply to Zacha?

It’s fair to say Zacha hasn’t really had the opportunity to play with top 6 wingers on a consistent basis, or anyone on a consistent basis for that matter.  Let’s look back at the original chart of Zacha’s wingers with TOI and CF%. Marcus Johansson missing a vast majority of the season hurt the overall team, but it especially impacted Zacha.  Drew Stafford had a rough year, but one has to wonder if Mojo and Zacha had been able to feed him the puck for a full season if his bad luck would have lasted.  Probably, but who knows. 

I’m excited to see a full season of Mojo and Zacha together.  My theory, as you probably already know if you follow me on twitter or read my UFA pieces, is that one of the highest priorities for Ray Shero this offseason needs to be adding a top six “shooter”.  Adding someone who’s entire role is to get open so Mojo and Zacha can feed them the puck.

The Numbers Beyond Points and +/-

Let’s look at this viz from CJ Turtoro of Corey Sznajder’s data on zone exits, entries, shot assists, and shots.  Now let’s compare Paul Stastny, a highly regarded UFA center, likely the 2^nd best available after John Tavares.  Stastny has been projected by Matt Cane to get a three-year deal with an AAV $5.41 million. 

Stastny has one advantage in this viz over Zacha.  Shot assists.  Zacha is better in the transition game at both entering and exiting the zone. He isn’t as good of a passer, but still contributes more shots.  Seeing this makes me wonder what kind of numbers Zacha could have put up paired with Hall.  While Stastny is an outstanding player, it certainly helps being paired with Vladimir Tarasenko in St. Louis and Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine in Winnipeg.

The reality for Zacha is he may be closer to a breakout than people realize.  Given a consistent LW, ideally Mojo, and a scoring RW, I fully expect Zacha to take off next year.

The RW doesn’t have to be a UFA or a trade, although Rick Nash on a one year deal sounds great to me as do the possible trade options of Gustav Nyquist or Jeff Skinner.  John Quenneville quietly had a very solid year in Binghamton. In his limited action in New Jersey, he’s shown he can shoot. 

I’ll sum it all up like this:

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If I’m the Devils I am far from panicking.  There’s reasons to be happy with Zacha’s play, despite not always being put in the best situation to succeed.

The good news is the steps that need to be taken to help him succeed aren’t crazy.  The first is consistently pairing him with Marcus Johansson.  The next is adding a UFA like Rick Nash or Thomas Vanek who can put pucks in the net when those two feed it to them.  Adding one of those two on a one-year deal buys time in case either Quenneville or Michael McLeod aren’t ready. Even if they are, having a vet on a one-year deal doesn’t hurt anyway. 

Now, with all this said, I’d like to point out I still fully support the pursuit of John Tavares.  However, if the Devils fail to sign Tavares, Zacha is a more than capable 2C. He’s a scoring winger away from a breakout year. 

Thanks to naturalstattrick.com, Corey for the data, and CJ for the viz.