New Jersey Devils Guide to a Perfect Offseason

The Washington Capitals are Stanley Cup Champions.  Even as a New Jersey Devils fan you have to feel great for Alexander Ovechkin.  But now that the NHL season is officially over, the work begins for General Manager Ray Shero.

I’m far from a NHL GM, but let me lay out for you what I believe is the perfect offseason for the New Jersey Devils.  Let’s start by identifying strengths and weaknesses on the current roster. Then, we’ll cover what should happen at the draft, and then free agency.

The Devils have some seriously strong Left Wing depth.  Taylor Hall, Marcus Johansson, Miles Wood, Blake Coleman, Jesper Bratt, and John Quenneville who spent last year in the AHL.

While there are plenty who are worried about the Devils center depth, I’ve written that theres no need to panic about Pavel Zacha yet. I’m Nico Hischier is locked in as your 1C, and Travis Zajac and Brian Boyle will fill out the bottom six.

Identifying Needs

You may be asking at this point if I’m actually going to identify any weaknesses.  Right Wing.  Kyle Palmieri can play on either the first or second line, but beyond Palmieri there isn’t a great option at RW.  Jesper Bratt spent a good portion of 2017-18 on Hischier’s wing, but his 5v5 play was subpar and he probably belongs in a 3^rd line role.

Stefan Noesen was great alongside Coleman and Zajac, but I personally wouldn’t be comfortable placing him in a top six role.

Joey Anderson signed an ELC just before the playoffs. He will likely compete for a role on this roster. While I think he may carve himself out a spot in the top six in the future, I don’t think he’ll be ready this year.

The same logic can be applied to Michael McLeod.  At this point I see McLeod filling a middle six role in the future, but he’s more likely to start in the AHL next year where he’ll get a year of needed development.

Now, we’ve identified the first need.  A top six winger.

Now, let’s look at the defense.  Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson are locked in as top four RD.  Will Butcher has earned himself a long look in that top four. I’ve talked recently about how well he and Severson performed in their limited time as a pairing.

Going off that, we can assume there’s a hole next to Sami Vatanen on the top pair.

Using that logic we’ll see some combination of Andy Greene (barring a buyout), Mirco Mueller, and Ben Lovejoy as the 3^rd pairing.

I’m not concerned about goaltending.  I understand some people are worried about Schneider’s health or Kinkaid’s consistency, but I think heading into 2018-19 with those two in net has the Devils in a good situation.

The Draft

As it currently stands, the Devils have six picks in the upcoming draft.  They’ll start off at 17^th overall and then don’t pick again until the 4^th round.  We’ve now identified a 3^rd weakness.

There are two scenarios heading into the draft.  One has an elite player projected to go well before 17 falling to 17.  The Devils should then draft that player.  Someone like Vitali Kravtsov, Rasmus Kupari, Joel Farabee, or even Ryan Merkley.

If none of those players are available, or if Ray Shero believes he can add a similar player and compile more picks then the Devils can trade back.  Teams like Detroit, St. Louis, and Chicago have multiple first round picks and may want to use that 2^nd pick and a 2^nd rounder to move up to the middle of the first round.

Moving down to 27, 29, or 30 doesn’t provide a massive drop in talent and will likely allow the Devils to add a 2^nd round pick.  Swapping with Detroit could allow the Devils to pick up the 31^st pick as well as either 33 or 36.

For reference, players like Kravtsov, Dominik Bokk, Rasmus Sandin, Jake Wise and Nicolas Beaudin will be available in that range.  I’ll be using NHL.com’s most recent mock to guess who could be available.

Here’s the scenario:  The Devils trade with Detroit.  Detroit moves up and selects Akil Thomas for example and the Devils acquire the 30^th and 36^th picks.  With the 30^th pick the Devils select Vitali Kravtsov, an elite scoring winger who falls for fear of him not coming over from the KHL.

With the 36^th pick, the Devils then add LD Nicolas Beaudin.  Beaudin is a highly skilled defenseman who posted 69 points in 68 games with Drummondville in the QMJHL.  Not only is Beaudin offensively talented, but he’s a great skater who excelled in the transition game in Drummondville.

While neither player will step in immediately, it sets the Devils up with a future top six winger and top four LD.  Not bad for a team that started out with only one pick in the first three rounds.

Free Agency

The possibility of Ray Shero adding a top six winger via a trade always seems likely at this point.  In 2015, Shero added Kyle Palmieri. In 2016, he added Taylor Hall. Then in 2017, he added Marcus Johansson.  However, unlike in previous years the Devils may not have what it takes to pull of a trade for someone like Jeff Skinner.  The rumored asking price for Skinner is a 1^st and a prospect.

We’ll operate under the assumption that Shero will be unable to pull off another heist and will have to address current needs through free agency.  As Shero said, he’s not a big fan of spending large in free agency. So I wouldn’t expect the Devils to overpay for anyone.

Sign John Tavares 7 years $11m AAV

Honestly, I don’t think this is going to happen, but all 31 teams should be making this offer to JT.  I don’t think it’s going to happen so we’ll assume he signs elsewhere and move onto the real offseason gameplan.

Sign James Van Riemsdyk 4 years $5.5m AAV

JVR is a left wing, but Mojo has shown the ability and willingness to slide over to RW.  Signing JVR adds a much needed finisher to this top six and is the push Pavel Zacha needs to finally breakout.  He’s projected by Matt Cane to receive a 3 year $5.3m AAV deal so adding an additional year and a little value could seal the deal.

Back up plan:

Rick Nash for 1 year $5.5m

Nash is a pure shooter.  He may not drive play like he used to, but I think he’s better than most people realize.  He may be the temporary answer the Devils need while they wait for one of Quenneville, McLeod, or whatever wing they draft to develop if they miss out on JVR.

Now let’s get a little more controversial.

Trade Travis Zajac

More from Pucks and Pitchforks

• Should New Jersey Devils Try Load Management With Vitek Vanecek?
• New Jersey Devils Will Prove That Last Year Wasn’t A Fluke
• New Jersey Devils: Luke Hughes’ Playmaking Will Outshine His Mistakes
• New Jersey Devils: Chase Stillman’s Performance Causes Concern
• Can Devils Fans Separate Zach Parise Heartbreak From Achievements?

Lou Lamoriello likes to bring in familiar faces. After Tavares departs Long Island in free agency, the Isles will have a hole at center.  Lou was the one who gave Zajac an eight-year contract and the Isles have plenty of draft ammo.  Zajac was a good 3C for the Devils last year, but could find himself a role in the Isles top six.  Realistically, if you’re Ray Shero, moving Zajac and his $5.75m cap hit for even a 4^th round pick makes sense.

One may be thinking that I just created a massive hole in the Devils middle six, but I actually disagree.  I wrote about addressing needs with internal options earlier this year and we can now apply some of that logic by moving Blake Coleman back to center.

Adding Depth

The Devils can also look at veterans like Antoine Roussel and Tommy Wingels to add into this bottom six.  Wingels may be available later in the offseason in a similar situation to Drew Stafford.  However, unlike Stafford, Wingels can jump into the bottom six instead of expecting a veteran on a near minimum deal to step into your top six.

Let’s take a look at the Devils forward group under this current plan:

Hall-Hischier-Palmieri

JVR-Zacha-Mojo

Wood-Coleman-Noesen

Roussel-Boyle-McLeod

That leaves Q and Bratt competing for time in camp.

Upgrading the Defense

The first two steps in the process are about not signing players.

1.) Let John Moore walk in free agency.

2.) Do not overpay John Carlson.  By overpay I mean pretty much anything over a $6m AAV. He’s going to get something between $8.5m and $9m.

Now that we haven’t overpaid for a defensive upgrade, let’s get Sami a new partner.

Sign Calvin De Haan 3 years $3m AAV

De Haan is strangely underrated throughout the NHL, but it seems he’s caught traction as a UFA target in the twitterverse at least.  De Haan’s overall numbers are actually really similar to John Carlson’s over the last three years.  Carlson had a career year this year and De Haan was injured, but the two prior years the defensemen posted similar GAR’s.  The biggest difference?  De Haan was better defensively at 5v5 and didn’t contribute much on the PP while Carlson wasn’t as good defensively at 5v5 and was a major PP contributor.

Signing De Haan addresses a major LD need and is an affordable upgrade.  There’s no real long term commitment to either De Haan or JVR and the Devils significantly improve this team.

Back up plan:

Ian Cole or Tobias Enstrom

Cole’s probably a little too expensive for what he would provide for the Devils, but Enstrom could potentially be brought in on a one year deal to buy the Devils a year to truly fix this defense.

I’ve talked about buying out Andy Greene, and while I think it’s possible, it doesn’t seem likely.  Greene has two years left with a $5m AAV. He was the captain last year.  The Devils aren’t desperate for cap space even if they sign Tavares so letting Greene finish out his contract in a 3^rd pair role won’t kill them.

There’s also been a lot of talk from Devils fans of trading Severson and that would be a huge mistake.  Severson is a top four RD on a team friendly deal who is coming off a “rough” year.  Pair him with Butcher and watch him thrive.  Butcher and Severson played as a pairing for 10 games last year and were rock solid.  Moving Severson creates a hole on the right side that isn’t easy to fill unless you’re going to overpay for Carlson.

With that let’s look at the defense:

De Haan-Vatanen

Butcher-Severson

Mueller-Lovejoy

Let’s sum it all up

The Devils move back in the draft in a trade with Detroit acquiring the 30^th and 36^th overall picks.  They then move Travis Zajac to the Islanders for a 4^th overall pick clearing out some cap space allowing more flexibility in free agency and opening a role for a younger skater.

With the top two picks the Devils draft either Kravtsov or Bokk and then Nicolas Beaudin.  Addressing two future needs, one a top six scoring winger and a top four LD.

The Devils now have the flexibility to be able to sign John Tavares and work out future deals with Hischier and Hall.  However, Ray Shero doesn’t overspend in free agency and instead addresses both positions of need with affordable upgrades, James Van Riemsdyk and Calvin De Haan.

I’ll never advocate against signing Tavares but just as a quick reference point of what adding De Haan and JVR brings compared to JT let’s look at Chace McCallum’s GAR and the AAV that will be added.

In signing JT, the Devils would add $11m in cap and 18.94 GAR/82.  In signing De Haan and JVR the Devils would add $8.5 in cap and 20.45 GAR/82, while avoiding any major long term commitments.

With these moves, the Devils have made some major upgrades and still have $14.6m in cap space.  With Ben Lovejoy and Brian Boyle coming off the books next year that’s an addition $5m in cap space putting them at $19.6m.  That’s more than enough to extend Hall, Hischier, Butcher, Johansson, and Zacha long term.

Thanks to Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey, Bill Comeau, and Chace McCallum for the data and vizzes.