New Jersey Devils: Does Boyle Trade Raise Expectations on Return for Marcus Johansson?

Yesterday was both an exciting and sad day for New Jersey Devils fans, who received the news that forward Brian Boyle was traded to the Nashville Predators.

In 47 games this season, Boyle tallied 13 goals and 19 points. His 50.2 face-off percentage was second-best on the team and his 6’6 frame made him effective in all playing situations. Considering everything Boyle has been through and his on-ice contributions during his time in New Jersey, it was hard to see him go. Having said that, you can’t overlook the return New Jersey received for Boyle—a 2019 second-round pick.

It’s no surprise the Devils have begun selling off their tradable assets, and I’m sure Boyle won’t be the last player shipped out over the next 18 days. With Boyle gone, New Jersey’s three most likely trade candidates are now Ben Lovejoy, Keith Kinkaid and Marcus Johansson. Out of those remaining three, Johansson will probably get General Manager Ray Shero the biggest return. After seeing what Shero was able to obtain for Boyle, has the trade raised expectations on potential returns for Marcus Johansson?

The most likely answer is not necessarily.

When a team trades for a player, their decision to is ideally based on three factors—the type of player, how valuable the player is to the team and what they’re willing to give up in exchange.

Look at the Boyle trade for example.

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The Predators are looking to improve offensively, namely their 30th-ranked power play. Despite scoring the 10th-most goals in the league as of writing this, Nashville wants to show they’re going all in on making another deep playoff run. Throw in his veteran presence and ability to play in all situations, it’s understandable why Nashville made the seemingly extravagant offer of a second-round pick to obtain Boyle’s services.

The first thing to point out is how Marcus Johansson is a different player from Brian Boyle. The Swedish winger is an ideal fixture in an offense’s top-six that can also contribute on the power play. Teams looking to improve their secondary scoring or overall offensively are the most likely suitors for Johansson. While I’m sure he’s most likely a fallback option for teams who miss out on more talented trade targets, the need to gain assets for a playoff push before the 3 PM deadline on February 25 could make some general managers anxious (even desperate) to get a deal done. This could prompt some teams to offer more than they’d like for a Johansson-type player.

At the very most, I think Shero could be devious enough to pry a return from a team that’s equivalent to what he originally received for Johansson—a second and third round pick. It’s also possible New Jersey could find themselves racing against time to move Johansson and trade him for a lesser return as a result.

A similar situation basically happened at the 2017 trade deadline, when Shero managed to pry a fourth-round pick from the Predators for center Vernon Fiddler, only to receive a sixth-round pick in exchange for playmaking winger PA Parenteau. If Shero tried leveraging his return for Boyle to get a better return for Johansson in this situation, the other general manager—unless they were equally desperate to obtain offensive talent—would probably tell Shero to take a hike.

Boyle and Johansson being different types of players is essentially why the return for Brian Boyle won’t influence in what Shero may receive for Johansson. It would probably be different if Shero traded someone like Michael Ferland or Thomas Vanek instead of Boyle, since Johansson is a more similar player as those two forwards.

If Shero garners a better return for Johansson than he did for Boyle, it will be based on how a team looking to bolster their offense, how strongly they think he’ll improve their lineup and willing to offer the assets necessary to secure his services.