Talk around the league is to expect more action this offseason than ones of recent past, with the New Jersey Devils among teams with the most pressure to make improvements. While most writers and analysts don’t seem to particularly prefer speculating or providing offseason coverage on the Devils, their abundance of cap space, the need to convince Taylor Hall to re-sign and serious plans of becoming playoff contenders as soon as next season should have them busy.
This will likely prompt General Manager Ray Shero to be more ambitious than he has the two previous summers—which makes for a compelling storyline.
Regardless of whatever moves Shero makes this summer, his biggest will most likely come via trade. One main reason for this is because the Devils will probably have to overpay if they make any splashes in free agency. There are three primary factors that largely determine where an unrestricted free agent signs—their fit with the team, the organization’s ability to win and of course, money.
In regards to the New Jersey Devils, there are plenty of high-profile unrestricted free agents that would fit perfectly and fill some pressing roster needs, as is the case with many other NHL teams—i.e. while an Artemi Panarin or Erik Karlsson would significantly improve the Devils overall and inept areas of their roster, that’s the same case with any other team pursuing the services of these players.
Regarding the team’s readiness to win, despite finishing with the third-worst record this year, New Jersey has a promising young foundation in place and is arguably one or two impactful player acquisitions away from becoming serious playoff contenders. You have to figure this is something any unrestricted free agents approached by the Devils will consider.
Between their abundance of cap space and stable ownership—which the Devils didn’t have when they tried re-signing Zach Parise—Ray Shero is free to spend as much of his projected $30+ million in cap space as he sees fit, so money (hence this being an article about overpaying free agents) probably isn’t an issue for making competitive offers.
So then, why would the New Jersey Devils still have to overpay in free agency?
The answer requires us to delve deeper into the points previously made. While many of this summer’s top unrestricted free agents would be perfect fits and have no concerns over their role or playing time, that’s also the case with several other teams.
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Let’s be real—while us Devils fans think the world of New Jersey, the organization isn’t among the most desirable playing destinations. Between the team’s well-documented struggles in recent years, them not being in a major market (being close to one doesn’t count) and the fact New Jersey is among the least-acknowledged teams in the hockey world, none of this helps.
Many teams vying for the same UFAs as the Devils are established playoff contenders, sport more appealing rosters for free agents to become part of and are in more desirable locations than New Jersey. Yes, the Garden State has its unique draws, but the allure of playing for a perennial playoff contender or in a major US city and hockey market will often prevail.
Putting the point about Panarin and Karlsson into perspective—while both players are perfect fits for the Devils, the same case can also be said for teams that are in larger markets and/or have been mainstream playoff contenders like the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Yes, either of these players is guaranteed to get top-tier ice time in New Jersey, but would still get that assurance, while also having the opportunity to make a great team better, in a major hockey market. There are also other teams with more talented rosters looking to spend this offseason. In cases like this, sometimes offering the extra salary is what might be required to give New Jersey the edge.
The New Jersey Devils have made the playoffs just once (and by the skin of their teeth) in the last seven seasons. Despite their youthful foundation and the team’s newfound identity, convincing free agents they’ve turned the page is still going to be a tough sell. Granted, any trades Shero makes leading up to July 1 can help sway some of those concerns, it probably won’t be enough for any high-profile free agents to justify giving the Devils a discount.
Although I mentioned earlier New Jersey is arguably one or two impactful player acquisitions away from becoming serious playoff contenders, you’d have to think any free agents that acknowledge this would leverage those circumstances for a higher salary. If not, there are those aforementioned established playoff contenders with more talented rosters these free agents will gladly flock to—and probably for less than they’d be willing to sign with the Devils.
Yes, the Devils will have well over $30 million in cap space, along with deep-pocketed owners willing to do what’s necessary to make the team a contender. Despite having to re-sign Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier to extensions within the next year, Shero can still afford to overpay in free agency if he feels it’s justified. Let’s also keep in mind (bearing any salary ramifications from trade acquisitions) the Devils will probably be below the cap floor going into July 1.
The other factor that most people probably haven’t considered is the fact that New Jersey is a high-tax state, which boasts a rate of 8.97 percent for earners who make more than $500,000 and 10.75 percent for earners making over $5,000,000. That’s the third-highest state income tax rate among US states and second-highest among states (unsurprisingly, only behind California) that are home to an NHL organization (and you wonder why people are fleeing the state in droves). Not counting re-signing their own players, you can argue New Jersey’s high tax rate is irrelevant by pointing out the free agent track records of teams in other high-tax states or regions like the Rangers or Toronto Maple Leafs. The biggest distinction between these comparisons, however, is that these teams being in major hockey markets and North American cities, which simply have so much more to offer.
Is it a coincidence that in recent years, teams presiding in states with a small or no income taxes have been the biggest spenders in free agency? While New Jersey’s high taxes might not necessarily deter a high-profile free agent from signing, they could very well factor in the Devils having to sweeten the pot by offering more money.
It’s understandable why the New Jersey Devils would have to overpay if they want to make any major improvements through free agency. While some of the aforementioned circumstances are surmountable if Shero is dead set on signing a certain player and the feeling is mutual, these factors are ultimately why I can’t see Shero making a major splash via free agency in the first place. Shero will most likely make any major acquisitions via trade, but I wouldn’t underestimate him if he especially targets a particular unrestricted free agent that he feels his team absolutely has to have. If it comes down to it, he’ll probably have to offer more money to seal the deal.