Should New Jersey Devils Keep or Trade Sami Vatanen?
The offseason has begun and the New Jersey Devils are less than a week away from making the first-overall pick at the 2019 NHL Draft. Having said that, there has been no shortage of speculation and scenarios on what Ray Shero will do to improve this team. It seems no players have been spared from the onslaught of trade scenarios, with some being more realistic than others.
Defenseman Sami Vatanen has been a subject of trade speculation that’s been brought up fairly often in recent weeks. Injuries limited him to playing just 50 games this season, where he tallied four goals and 17 points. This was a significant regression from the 28 points he had in his first 57 games with the Devils after the team acquired him for Adam Henrique, Joseph Blandisi and a pick swap last season.
I can understand the allure in trading Vatanen. The 28-year old Finn has one year left on his current contract and a cap-friendly $4.875 million AAV.
He suffered two concussions last season, which could make him especially susceptible to injury moving forward and the Devils wary of signing him long-term. Despite his uninspiring 2018-19 numbers, Vatanen can be a resourceful top-four defenseman who contributes offensively at even strength and on the power play.
While he can remain a fixture on the Devils defense, Vatanen can fetch a formidable return in a potential trade. With the lack of quality defensemen available in free agency, there will certainly be a demand on the trade market that the New Jersey Devils can take advantage of by making a player like Vatanen available.
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There’s also the prospect of freeing up cap space to re-sign some of the team’s core players whose current contracts expire in 2020 like Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, along with (to a lesser extent) Jesper Bratt and Mackenzie Blackwood.
Depending on his health and performance, Vatanen could command a long-term contract between 4-6 years for an AAV of at least $5 million—maybe as high as $6 million. Let’s also keep in mind that any major acquisitions Shero makes this offseason will eat a decent portion of the team’s cap space beyond 2020. If one of Shero’s impactful acquisitions manages to be a defenseman, it could make Vatanen expendable.
On the contrary, you can also make a case to keep the right-shooting blue liner. Yes, bringing another top-four defenseman that bolsters the team’s defensive core, which (in addition to Vatanen) currently comprises of Andy Greene, Damon Severson and Will Butcher and make Vatanen expendable, however it’s worth noting that Greene is also entering his contract year and will be 37-years old at the end of next season.
If you take Greene out of the equation, only Vatanen and Severson have played more than 300 games among Devils defensemen. With the New Jersey Devils looking to become a playoff contender sooner rather than later, along with touted prospects like Jeremy Davies and Ty Smith coming up the pipeline, New Jersey might be wise to hold onto their more tenured defensemen. Blue liners like Vatanen and Severson are familiar with the organization, can help mentor their young up-and-comers and provide insurance on the backend.
While this past season was Vatanen’s first full campaign with the New Jersey Devils, it was an injury-riddled year, where the Finnish defenseman and entire team underachieved. One can argue this was by all means, an off-year.
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Vatanen showed flashes of being an ample contributor on a winning team during his first 57 games with the Devils in 2017-2018—and that team wasn’t very deep. If Shero meets his high expectations for significantly improving his team this offseason, the prospect of what a healthy Sami Vatanen can do on a much more talented team over a full season is intriguing.
Keeping Vatanen for next season will also enable the New Jersey Devils to see how the right-handed blue liner performs. Vatanen can help this team by playing a full unobstructed campaign, where he can put his best skills on display. Having said that, there are plenty of good reasons to trade Vatanen and Shero won’t think twice to implement a deal if he knows it can improve his team.