New Jersey Devils: Are You Willing To Accept Price For Mitch Marner?

Friday night, the New Jersey Devils have the privilege of selecting the first-overall pick in the draft. They have nine other selections in the draft, four of which were acquired from other teams.

One of the very few rewards of being a team that finished in the bottom of the standings is that you have the opportunity to select a player near the top of the draft rankings. The first-overall selection is the Devils’ own 1st-round pick. With Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner a restricted free agent this offseason, he is going to command a high salary. With being an RFA, it comes at not only a cap hit cost, but a cost of future assets as well. Would you be willing to pay the price?

Marner would command a salary north of $10 million, probably. Only three full seasons in the NHL at 22 years old, he has tallied 224 points in 241 games. With a resume like that coming off his entry-level deal, he is going to get paid.

If any other team besides the Maple Leafs want to sign Marner, they are going to have to compensate the Maple Leafs. Think of the Devils getting Scott Stevens as compensation for the Blues signing Brendan Shanahan. If Marner gets an $8.5 million per year deal, as an example, you are giving the Maple Leafs a minimum two 1st-round picks, one 2nd-round pick, and one 3rd-round pick. All of this on top of you taking on the big cap hit.

If you are a team like the New Jersey Devils, who besides the 2017-18 season, have been historically bad the last six seasons, do you really want to give up draft picks if they are going to be higher in the draft? In actuality, Marner will get most likely a $10.5+ million deal. Which means your 1st-round picks for the next four years.

That should scare the Devils. It could also scare general managers across the NHL, which is why an offer sheet is incredibly rare. Ray Shero is on record saying “F— that s—“, when it comes to not giving someone an offer sheet. It is an intriguing thought, which is exactly why Shero shouldn’t give one to Marner.

The Devils have had the number-one overall pick two of the last three seasons, both their own 1st-round picks. With Taylor Hall‘s future in very murky water, why would you sacrifice four 1st-round picks for Marner? While Marner is a fantastic player, he has also had Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nazem Kadri, and some guy named John Tavares. One might think Nazem Kadri doesn’t deserve to be in that sentence, but look at his numbers. He has 160 points his last 3 seasons.

Even defenseman Morgan Reilly scored 72 points last season, which would have led the Devils by 22 points. The point being Marner has had a lot of people around him to facilitate his point producing play. If Hall walks next July, Marner would be with Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes/Kappo Kakko, Kyle Palmieri, and that is really it. Damon Severson is the best offensive defenseman the Devils have and Morgan Reilly nearly outscored him by double last season.

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So if you sign Marner, lose your 1st-round picks for the next 4 seasons, and Hall leaves you are probably going to be picking high again for the next 3-4 years. But those picks will go to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Taylor Hall is essentially the key to the Marner equation. If you have a top line of Hall-Hischier-Marner and have your prospects like Jesper Boqvist develop like you’d hope, maybe parting with those 1st-round picks wouldn’t be so bad. If Hall leaves, you are essentially in the same boat you are in now only with Hughes/Kakko and Marner replacing Hall as your superstar. Even then, you don’t know how or if Marner will produce without a Tavares, Nylander, or Reilly around him.

Would the Devils be a better team with Mitch Marner for the future? Absolutely. They may be even a playoff team if whomever the 1st pick is goes off for 70+ points, Ty Smith can assume a top-four role, and Cory Schneider/Mackenzie Blackwood are as stable as some of the signs they showed to close out last season. That is just a whole lot of “ifs”. The biggest one, not only for Marner, but the entire franchise, is if Hall stays or goes. The Devils would be better off holding onto the picks. Maybe spending $4 million on a Kasperi Kapanen and only sacrifice a 2nd-round pick would be the better option.

Either way, the Devils need to add talent. Adding Mitch Marner would be huge. Maybe it would entice Hall to stay on top of adding Hughes/Kakko. But if the Devils don’t succeed with Marner, Hall walks, and Toronto wins the lottery with the Devils’ picks, would it be worth it? No one can predict the future, but to get better you need to pay the price. Are you willing to pay it?

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