New Jersey Devils: Why P.K. Subban Will Rebound in 2019-2020

Much to the dismay of NHL anchors and analysts, the New Jersey Devils were the talk of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Between their first overall selection of Jack Hughes and groundbreaking trade for defenseman PK Subban, it was big night for Jersey’s Team. In a completely lopsided deal that worked in their favor, the Devils acquired a genuine top-pairing blue liner that’s expected to anchor their backend—an asset they’ve sorely lacked for well over a decade.

Naturally, there were some naysayers and outright haters that crawled out of the woodwork, who voiced their skepticism and displeasure about the deal. Many cited Subban’s injury-riddled 2018-19 campaign and subpar numbers as evidence that the 30-year old defenseman is already declining.

These viewpoints are understandable, as Subban was sidelined for 19 games, while posting nine goals and 31 points—his lowest totals over nine full NHL seasons. Subban’s subpar 2018-2019 campaign even got him voted as the most overrated player by his own peers in a poll conducted by the Athletic.

While the naysayers make a compelling case for Subban being on the decline, I can’t necessarily say it’s enough to sway my 2019-2020 projections for the Toronto, Ontario native. In fact, I think we’re going to see the exact opposite in his first season with the New Jersey Devils.

With 2018-19 being the sole exception, Subban hasn’t posted fewer than 40 points in five of his last six seasons, despite playing fewer than 68 games in three out of his last four campaigns. Let’s also keep in mind that Subban achieved these feats while mostly playing on offensively inept teams the majority of his career. He’s played on teams that finished top-10 in scoring just twice—the first being with the Montreal Canadiens in 2012-2013 (the lockout-shortened season when he won the Norris Trophy) and 2016-2017 Nashville Predators (who reached the Stanley Cup Finals).

If this is any indication, Subban seems to perform when he has a deep talented offense in front of him.

This isn’t to say the New Jersey Devils will be an offensive juggernaut, but their 2019-2020 roster will feature an array of top-end forwards for Subban to feed the puck to and facilitate rushes that’s perhaps deeper than any forward group of his previous teams. Granted, Subban has played with some quality forwards like Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, those individual players don’t compare to New Jersey’s current forward core of Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri and Jack Hughes. This of course doesn’t even consider anyone else Ray Shero might bring in between now and next season.

Throw in the fact that Subban sits atop the Devils defensive depth chart and is poised to log major five-on-five and power-play minutes, he’s going to be relied upon as a major offensive outlet from New Jersey’s backend. Granted that everyone remains healthy, systematically clicks, along with the fact that Subban’s expendability won’t be exploited by blue liners such as Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis like it was in Nashville, he really couldn’t be in a more ideal situation for a redemptive campaign.

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His advanced stats are also a little more encouraging, with his Corsi and Fenwick Relative For percentages at even strength respectively being 53.4 and 52.9, meaning Subban’s team was in possession of the puck more often than not when he was on the ice.

Other statistical categories are more telling, such as his Goals Above Replacement (GAR), which determines the value of an individual player’s on-ice play, compared to a replacement (also known as a depth) player. Subban’s GAR per 60 (minutes) dipped considerably this past season to about -0.1, which indicated his expendability on Nashville’s deep talented blue line.

His Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM), which individualizes a player’s impact without factoring the play of their teammates or opponents, is also quite telling. At even strength, Subban’s offensive RAPM is quite high, with standard deviations of +1.75 (Off_CF- shot attempts generated while player is on the ice) and +.75 (Off_xG- expected goals for generated by player’s team while player is on the ice), along with a standard deviation on the power play of around +.40 (PPO_CF-same as Off-CF but on the power play).

Simply put, good things happen offensively when Subban is on the ice and these metrics could very well improve for Subban now that he’s in a situation where he’s “the man” on the Devils defense.

Lastly, I’d be dismissive of any concerns regarding Subban’s age. Six out of the NHL’s top-10 highest-scoring defensemen in 2018-2019 were ages 29 or older, with the oldest (Brent Burns, 34) leading the pack with 83 points. While this is more or less a testament to the overall talent level of these players, it just goes to show this degree of skill doesn’t necessarily vanish with age.

As long as Subban can stay healthy, I’m confident he can post the numbers we’re accustomed to seeing from him up until this past season.