Did 2018-19 New Jersey Devils Play Better Without Taylor Hall?

With last season now in the rear-view mirror, New Jersey Devils fans are anxiously waiting for their team’s 2019-20 campaign to begin, especially in the wake of a transformative summer—that’s still not yet over—orchestrated by GM Ray Shero. While the new-look Devils have been a hot conversation topic and now have higher expectations next season, they’re still hearing echoes of their abysmal 2018-19 season.

One such is the impending fate of left wing Taylor Hall, who New Jersey Devils fans are anxiously awaiting for a signal on the franchise forward’s future. The aspect of Taylor Hall potentially leaving for nothing next summer rekindles painful memories of when core players like Zach Parise, Scott Gomez, Brian Rafalski and Scott Niedermayer all left in that exact manner.

Especially since it’s something the organization has regained after going so long without, losing Taylor Hall would be crippling from an identity standpoint. The void left by his departure would inevitably impede this team’s prolonged rebuild, just due to the effective all-around player Hall is and how opportunities for acquiring franchise cornerstones like himself are few and far between.

Taylor Hall’s impact on the New Jersey Devils was realized when he guided the organization to their first postseason appearance in six years, winning the MVP in the process. At first glance, it would appear his injury-prone campaign was a key factor in why the Devils bottomed out in such a cataclysmic manner. The biggest causes behind last season’s debacle were a goaltending implosion and a glaring absence of secondary scoring. A closer look at New Jersey’s play with and without Taylor Hall reveals his impact on the team wasn’t as momentous after his (ultimately) season-ending injury.

Taylor Hall appeared in 33 games last season, during which the New Jersey Devils went 12-16-7 (to clarify, Taylor Hall played in 33 of New Jersey’s first 35 games in 2018-19). With Hall in the lineup, the Devils had a .342 winning percentage and were on pace for 72-73 points. In the 47 games after Hall’s last appearance, New Jersey went 19-25-3—a .404 winning percentage. If those final 47 games equated to an 82-game season, the Devils would have attained about 71 points. For context, New Jersey finished last season with 72 points and had a .378 winning percentage.

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The difference without Taylor Hall in the lineup is subtle, but distinct. In 47 games without Hall, New Jersey’s winning percentage (.404) is higher than their play with Hall (.342). Having said that, the Devil’s percentage for regulation losses was also higher in those 47 games without Hall (.532), than their first 35 games with him in the lineup (.457).

Another factor is the quality of losses New Jersey suffered with and without Hall, such as how many games they lost by two or more goals. In their final 47 games without Hall, 18 of their 25 regulation losses were by a margin of two or more goals (72 percent). In addition, the Devils were scored on four or more times in 20 of those 47 contests (42 percent). Over their 35 games with Hall, the Devils lost by two or more goals in 13 of their 16 regulation losses (81 percent), while getting scored on four or more times in 18 of those contests (51 percent).

The difference in goal-scoring with and without Hall was notable, but not groundbreaking. Through the first 35 contests, the Devils scored 2.91 goals per game, while averaging 2.55 goals per game in the next 47 games. The numbers do seem to reflect an apparent drop in scoring following Hall’s sidelining, but the team’s corresponding winning percentage seems to show the Devils were—slightly—more successful at winning games after his injury, despite scoring less.

If the numbers indicate anything, it’s that the New Jersey Devils didn’t play better—or worse—with or without Taylor Hall in the lineup last season. Although the margin between winning percentages in games Hall did and didn’t play in was noteworthy, the equivalent rates of losing by margins or two or more goals and being scored on four or more times during those two times of the season seem to point at two conclusions—New Jersey’s season was indeed ultimately derailed by less-than-subpar goaltending and secondary scoring and the Devils were fated for failure last season with or without Taylor Hall.

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