New Jersey Devils: Maple Leafs’ Cap Situation Offers Glimpse into Future

Yesterday, the summer-long saga of Toronto Maple Leafs’ forward Mitch Marner concluded when the two parties finally agreed on a six-year, $65 million contract, making him the organization’s third player to receive a $10 million+ AAV. While Toronto’s constricting cap situation might not seem pertinent at first, the reality is the New Jersey Devils may endure an eerily similar crunch in the not-too-distant future.

To clarify before deciphering New Jersey’s potential future cap situation, keep in mind these projections are purely speculative. There’s no guarantee all players mentioned will remain with the organization, while other scenarios like trades and the upcoming expansion draft are always a possibility (maybe inevitability).

As we all know, cornerstone players like Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier are due for new contracts next summer. In Hall’s case, his next contract will likely garner an AAV of at least $10 million in, while Hischier could fall in the $6-7 million range. Assuming Hall rebounds significantly from his injury-shortened 2018-19 campaign and Hischier sets new career-highs next season, those figures could be higher.

Aside from Hall and Hischier, the New Jersey Devils also have notable players like Jesper Bratt, Sami Vatanen and Mackenzie Blackwood due for new contracts in 2020. Depending on how healthy and productive Bratt and Vatanen are next season, it’s not out of the question for each player to sign new deals in the $4-6 million ranges. Blackwood is an interesting case, as he could very well command anywhere from $3-6 million, especially if he establishes himself as a starting-caliber goaltender that puts New Jersey over the top in 2019-20.

Earlier this summer, I wrote a piece speculating on these contract projections for the group of aforementioned players and while Ray Shero’s cap management has been unparalleled, my earlier article didn’t consider the players up for contractual renews in 2021—like Kyle Palmieri and Nikita Gusev.

Palmieri has been one of New Jersey’s most consistent goal-scorers over the last four seasons and will inevitably seek a substantial raise from his current $4.65 million AAV. Especially if he stays healthy and his production grows in conjunction with the team’s high expectations for this season, Palmieri could justifiably demand a salary starting around $6-8 million in his new contract.

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New Jersey Devils fans were blindly rabid over acquiring Nikita Gusev, the bar has been set quite high for the Russian winger who’s never stepped foot on the NHL ice. If the 27 year old does in fact establish himself as a genuine top-six forward, he too could see his next contract’s AAV balloon from his current $4.5 million to somewhere in the $5-7 million range—possibly more.

This brings us to New Jersey’s prized 2019 1st-round pick­­–Jack Hughes. The sky is most certainly the limit for this projected franchise-caliber player, and if he manages to meet expectations over the next 2-3 seasons, he could very well break the bank and become another annual $10+ million long-term investment for the organization.

Circling back to the Maple Leafs, they currently have over $33 million in salary tied to three players over the next 5-6 years. In addition, they also have another $16.9 million going to three more players beyond this coming season—William Nylander ($6.9 million), Morgan Reilly ($5 million), Frederik Andersen ($5 million).

That’s almost $50 million invested in six players.

On top of that, recently-acquired defenseman Tyson Barrie will surely seek a major pay raise when his current contract expires next summer of at least double his current $2.75 million AAV. While it’s more or less a tossup at this point if Barrie re-signs with Toronto, the organization will surely explore every conceivable option to secure the top-end blue liner long-term.

In a couple of years, the New Jersey Devils could find themselves committing anywhere from $51-64 million to 6-8 players (these figures don’t even factor in PK Subban’s $9 million AAV over the next three seasons). Having said that, it’s worth reiterating Shero has been among the league’s best at cap management—both in Pittsburgh and New Jersey—and may very well already have a plan in place to address those upcoming cap implications.

Nonetheless, one of the more positive takeaways from this situation is how it’s a reflection on how the tides have changed in New Jersey and are poised to remain favorable for the next several years.