The start to the 2019-20 season has been anything but ideal for the New Jersey Devils and Jack Hughes. After a dominant first two periods against Winnipeg, the team collapsed. The struggles continued against the Sabres in Buffalo.
Rookie Jack Hughes has been one of the most notable players experiencing early struggles. Hughes has posted a CF% of 23.26 and an xGF% of 23.32 through two games, both the worst on the team. On top of the rough underlying numbers, he’s also been on the ice for three goals against at 5v5 and none for.
Fortunately for the Devils, despite the slow start for Hughes, it seems the offensively struggles are mostly limited to Hughes. His linemates have rotated early on, starting with Nikita Gusev and Jesper Bratt, and then playing with Miles Wood most recently.
All three players struggled with Hughes, but away from Hughes have posted acceptable numbers. It’s important to remember that all of these samples are extremely limited as the Devils have only played two games and Hughes’ has had his linemates juggled quite a bit to start the year.
The Gusev-Hughes-Bratt line posted a CF% of 33.33 and Coach John Hynes believed rightfully so a change was necessary. Unfortunately the first move was to Miles Wood. The pairing struggled more than the original line, posting a CF% of 18.75 and xGF% of 12.73. Not great!
While trying to pair Hughes with a skill set similar to Wood’smay have been the right idea, it was the wrong execution. Wood excels in transition and is a great fit for the Devils bottom six, but his play style doesn’t mesh well with Hughes.
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Wood likes to gain the zone and generate shot attempts almost as soon as he enters the zone. This requires linemates that are stronger around the net and recovering the puck. That’s doesn’t fit Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt’s skillsets.
On top of that, Wood is 2nd to Taylor Hall in giveaways/60 over the past two years for the Devils. However, unlike Hall he fails to make up for it with takeaways. While, the idea of pairing Hughes with a player like Wood seems right, Wood was the wrong choice.
Now onto why Blake Coleman is the perfect fit. Coleman excels both offensively and defensively. His net output from Micah McCurdy’s magnus model over the last two years is +27.1 in 2017-18 and +20.9 in 2018-19. Coleman fits the model of a two-way forward in the modern NHL perfectly. He plays a strong physical game, can drive play offensively, and generates scoring chances.
Coleman ranks favorably in giveaways/60 and takeaways/60 as well, second to only Hall in takeaways. Among all Devils forwards Coleman ranks 2nd in iXG/50 at .8, behind only Taylor Hall, and 2nd in iSCF/60 at 8.63, again only behind Taylor Hall.
Beyond the underlying numbers, Coleman scored 22 goals last year and is an above average shooter. While early on it may have seemed that pairing Hughes and Gusev would have a ton of success, Hughes clearly requires a stronger two-way player than Gusev.
Finding the ideal fit on their RW is a bit more tricky. Simmonds may not be perfect, but Kyle Palmieri may be. Palmieri is a similar player to Coleman with higher end shooting talent. I’m not in favor of splitting up the Hall-Hischier-Palmieri line but if they’re going to do it may make sense to try out a Coleman-Hughes-Palmieri line.
As it stands, going with Coleman and Hughes appears to be the right decision.
Statistics from NaturalStatTrick.com and HockeyViz.com