After a turbulent November, the writing already appears on the wall for the New Jersey Devils as December commences. Currently 10 points out of a playoff spot as of Sunday night, history has zero sympathy for teams this far out in the standings, even after just two months into the season. Since the division realignment, not one team that was 10 or more points out of a playoff spot on December 1 ever reached the postseason.
Changes are desperately needed and General Manager Ray Shero needs to act fast. This is especially the case with left wing Taylor Hall, whose days as a Devil largely appear to be numbered. Rumors have already circulated that Shero is listening to offers and if he wants to get the best possible return, should execute a trade as soon as possible.
Yes, this is the latest of countless Taylor Hall pieces, but hopefully will offer another unique perspective. While trading Hall would be widely perceived as the New Jersey Devils sticking a knife in this cataclysm of a season, the reasons and potential ramifications for imminently moving the coveted left wing are worth exploring.
As one of our recent pieces explained, Hall’s uncertain future with the organization could be an elephant in the room that’s having a profound effect on the Devils locker room. It would hurt to see such a core asset of the organization get moved, but provide a sense of closure to the rest of the team and help them regroup.
Granted, it might sound outlandish at first, this segues into the possibility (emphasizing on the word “possibility”) that trading Hall could potentially prompt a turnaround in the team’s play. The only reason this outcome is worth mentioning are recent examples of teams improving after parting ways with star-quality players.
The best example is when the Colorado Avalanche traded forward Matt Duchene 14 games into the 2017-2018 season. At that time, Colorado made the playoffs just once in the previous seven seasons (2014). Despite being part of a six-way tie in the standings, they were still out of a playoff spot at the time they traded Duchene, with an 8-6-0 record (.57 win percentage). Following Duchene’s departure, they went 35-24-9 in their next 68 contests (.63 win percentage), which was enough to secure Colorado the Western Conference’s second wildcard spot.
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Like the New Jersey Devils, Colorado had a swath of young quality forwards that defined the organization’s long-term future—Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog—all of whom stepped up immensely following Duchene’s departure. Equivalently, New Jersey has the likes of Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, along with core assets like Kyle Palmieri and Nikita Gusev that could lead New Jersey’s forwards in the wake of a groundbreaking occurrence like trading Taylor Hall.
It might sound preposterous to propose such a scenario, given the team’s performance to date, but the same response would have been given if anyone had said the same about Colorado at this time two years ago. Just something to put into perspective.
A more recent example is how the New York Islanders turned out after former captain John Tavares left via free agency two summers ago. While it’s important to note the successful implementation of Head Coach Barry Trotz’s playing system has primarily been instrumental in the Islander’s unprecedented success, one of the biggest changes that occurred was the team’s shift from solely relying on Tavares’ performance to playing a more independent collective brand of hockey.
Like the Islanders when they had Tavares, the New Jersey Devils have ultimately been carried by Taylor Hall since his 2017-2018 Hart Trophy-winning campaign. The assets New Jersey has acquired over the last year were supposed to make the team rely less on Hall and provide more balanced scoring depth. Hall’s play may still have a grappling hold over the Devils and (as previously mentioned) his departure could potentially unlock the other team’s top forward’s true capabilities.
General managers of other teams know Shero runs the risk of losing Taylor Hall for nothing if he doesn’t trade him by February 25. The longer Hall remains unmoved as the 2020 trade deadline nears, suitors will use this situation as leverage to try to downplay Shero’s asking price for Hall. By acting now, Shero takes that leverage away from potential trade partners, has more time to evaluate his options and heighten the bidding between teams for a package that meets or exceeds his asking price.
His injury history is very well-documented and a primary reason why some of the more critical thinkers among the Devil’s faithful hesitate at the thought of Hall re-signing long-term. Hall’s volatile health could become an uphill battle as he enters his 30s and Shero’s current advantages over trade inquirers are gone if the left wing succumbs to injuries for an extended period of time.
Consequences like any offers not meeting Shero’s asking price or being unable to trade Hall due to him being sidelined through February 25 loom in the event of an untimely injury. While it’s possible any teams that have reached out to Shero could be trying to use Hall’s previous injury history as a bargaining chip in trade talks, it’s all the more reason why it makes sense to begin seriously shopping Hall now than zero hour.
Ray Shero’s predecessor, Lou Lamoriello once said “when time is on your side, you use it.” Given the team’s current situation, this statement couldn’t be truer when it comes to the decisions Shero makes regarding Taylor Hall. Shero will have more to lose the longer Hall remains with the organization as the February 25 trade deadline looms, but currently has a lot of leverage over other teams inquiring about Taylor Hall’s services. Shero has to be very articulate on how he navigates this situation over the next few months and utilizes his current advantages.