New Jersey Devils: Delving into P.K. Subban’s Point Drought

In light of the storylines surrounding the New Jersey Devils this season, one situation that’s flown under the radar until recent days is the lack of superstar play of defenseman P.K. Subban. After 29 games this season, the 30-year old defenseman has just two goals and five points, which isn’t ideal production for a blue liner with a $9 million AAV that’s expected to anchor the team’s defense.

Subban has started drawing attention to himself after going pointless in his last 17 games. Granted, the Devils are having an astronomically disastrous season. Still, this being Subban’s first year with the organization, he still shouldn’t be struggling this badly.

One facet of Subban’s game that can provide some insight are his shot rates. Going into Tuesday night’s bout, he leads all Devils defensemen with 64 shots, putting him fifth on the team in this category. In terms of shots per game (2.21), Subban is 6th on the team and 31st among all NHL defensemen with at least 15 games played this season, which isn’t ideal for a player purported to be a top-pairing blue liner.

Through his first 12 games, Subban was on pace for 13 goals, 33 points and tallied 30 shots (2.5 per game). In comparison, his shot rate has dipped slightly during his 17-game point drought—34 shots (2.0 per game). While there isn’t any significant disparity in Subban’s shot totals between his first 12 and last 17 contests, a deeper look at shooting-related stats like all shots on net, scoring and high danger chances when he’s on the ice tells another story.

The charts below map out the Devil’s percentages and rates per game for shots for (SF), scoring chances (SCF), high-danger chances (HDCF) and goals off high-danger chances (HDGF) over Subban’s first 12 contests and his 17-game point drought on both the power play and five-on-five.

"View post on imgur.com"

-Stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com

The charts above unveil three notable correlations with Subban’s struggles—indifference among total five-on-five shots on net (percentages and per game), the team’s five-on-five possession numbers in these categories and rates per game when on the power play with Subban on the ice.

Changes in the team’s total five-on-five shot percentages and per game when Subban is on the ice are minimal. For the most part, Subban hasn’t impacted his team’s total five-on-five shot per game rates, which actually increased slightly when he’s on the ice over the last 17 contests (9.83-10.23 per game).

More from Pucks and Pitchforks

This isn’t the case on the power play. Although New Jersey’s percentage of total shots with Subban on the ice during the man advantage has dipped (83.78-78.26%), their total shots per game dropped by more than half (2.58-1.05 per game). Simply put, New Jersey may still be getting the majority of total shots when Subban is playing on the man advantage during his point drought, but have averaged significantly less power play shots per game over that stretch.

The team’s biggest declines with Subban on the ice at five-on-five are their percentage of total scoring chances (52.41-43.15%), high-danger scoring chances (55.22-45.79%) and high-danger goals (50.00-11.11). The rates per-game for these categories at five-on-five dipped slightly, with high-danger goals per game seeing the sharpest drop (.41-.05 per game). This coincides with the sharp drop in New Jersey’s percentage of total high-danger scoring chances when Subban is on the ice between his first 12 and last 17 games.

These disparities show teams have been outplaying the Devils in these categories with Subban on the ice at five-on-five since he registered his last point. When Subban has been on the ice in his last 17 games, teams are creating and capitalizing on more opportunities to score goals than the Devils. As a result, Subban has been spending more time defending against scoring chances from opponents than helping his team create and execute their own.

Subban’s biggest regressive influence on the ice over his last 17 games occurred on the power play. The team’s percentages of total shots, scoring and high-danger chances saw slight decreases, but their average rates per game took nosedives when Subban has played over that span. Percentages and per game rates of total power play shots for the Devils with Subban on the ice were previously covered, with the latter setting a precedent for the other category’s rates per game when on the man advantage.

Next. Devils Will Still Have Identity After Taylor Hall. dark

With Subban on the ice, New Jersey is only averaging one-third the number of power play scoring (2.25-.88) and high-danger chances (.91-.29) per game. The Devils have yet to convert on any goals off high-danger scoring chances when Subban is on the ice. Given how Subban has yet to register a power play point, this shouldn’t come as a surprise.

The New Jersey Devils have struggled mightily on the power play this season, but Subban being on the ice seems to extenuate these misfortunes since his point drought began. New Jersey’s power play possession numbers haven’t shifted majorly with Subban on the ice during his point drought, but the team is averaging significantly fewer chances per game. Whether Subban has become too readable by other teams when up a man or it’s a matter of having to generate and capitalize on more scoring and high danger chances, it’s something that must be addressed if Subban wants to snap both his 17-game point drought and start tallying power play points.

Since Subban’s pointless streak, the New Jersey Devils struggle to maintain possession when he’s on the ice at five-on-five and have witnessed a significant drop in average attempts and chances per game with Subban on the power play. Sometimes it’s a matter of simplifying your game and getting the puck toward the net, regardless of the opportunity’s quality. Subban must be more aggressive and opportunistic with taking more shots on net and recognizing when to capitalize on more scoring chances. It’s something Subban must start helping himself and his teammates with if he wants to overcome this point drought that’s lasted almost a quarter-season.

Home/Editorials