New Jersey Devils: Fair Price for Blackwood Contract

The New Jersey Devils’ up-and-coming netminder Mackenzie Blackwood will be a Restricted Free Agent this offseason. What is a fair contract for Blackwood and the Devils?

As the NHL pause drags on, the likelihood of seeing the New Jersey Devils play another game in the 2019-20 season decreases. That said, it is impossible to not think about the RFA signings the Devils GM will have to deal with this offseason. Potentially the most important extension will be Mackenzie Blackwood’s.

Just before the NHL pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Blackwood was starting to work his way into Calder trophy conversations, which were previously dominated by Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar and Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes. His remarkable stat-line is the cause for that, given the team he played behind. His 2019-20 save percentage is .915, which ranks him 20th in the league among all goaltenders who have played at least 24 games. His Goals Against Average is 2.77, ranking him 30th in the league among those who have played 24 games. Blackwood’s stats hold additional weight, as he played 47 games this season, which spanned over the extreme underperformance the New Jersey Devils put on display throughout the year.

These rankings may not seem all that great at a glance, but consider Blackwood’s goaltending outperformed all but Linus Ullmark (.915, 2.69 for Buffalo) among the seven teams currently at the bottom of the standings. This means that Blackwood was the 2nd best goaltender in the league among goalies that played behind a seriously bad team.

Lest we forget… Mackenzie Blackwood is only 23 years old, with just 70 NHL games played.

To determine fair value and time period for a Mackenzie Blackwood contract, look at a couple of star goaltenders whose performances resemble Blackwood’s at those points in their respective careers. These goaltenders are Andrei Vasilevskiy and Matt Murray.

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In July of 2016, Vasilevskiy signed a 3 year, $10.5 million contract ($3.5M AAV). For the three seasons preceding this signing Vasilevskiy posted a .918, .910, and then a .917 SV%. His GAAs were 2.36, 2.76, and then 2.61. He played 90 games over this three-season span.

In October of 2016, Matt Murray signed a 3 year, $11.25 million contract ($3.75M AAV). Before signing this contract, Murray had only played 13 regular-season games in 2015-2016 and then the beginning of the 2016-2017 season. In those 13 games in 2015-16, Murray had a huge impact on the Pittsburgh Penguins, as their other goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was injured just before the playoffs began. Murray went on to win a Stanley Cup as a rookie with the Penguins that year, a remarkable feat for an NHL goaltender.

Murray’s stats were far better than Blackwood’s, and his impact was far greater. However,  Blackwood’s impact on the New Jersey Devils is similar, though on a smaller scale. After ex-GM Ray Shero did nothing to address the Devils instability in net during the 2019 offseason, and then Cory Schneider absolutely fell apart, Jersey’s team was left with no reliable goaltending.

Until Mackenzie Blackwood really stepped up, that is. Since the new calendar year began, Blackwood has been stealing wins for the Devils. The team would have remained embarrassing without him, but Blackwood insisted on maintaining the dignity of the New Jersey Devils organization. For this, he has earned the respect of teammates, fans, and management alike.

This leads us back to the subject at hand: Blackwood’s impending contract extension. A fair contract for both Blackwood and the Devils is a 3-year, $10.5 million contract.

Why 3 years? It wouldn’t be fair to Blackwood or the New Jersey Devils to lock him in for any longer than that at this point. If Blackwood continues to develop and exceed expectations for years to come, he will most likely end up making less money than he’s worth. On the other hand, if Blackwood stops developing or recedes, the Devils will end up stuck with another shaky goaltender long term. Devils fans are witnessing first-hand how inconvenient that is with Cory Schneider.

So, 3 years – not too short or too long. And, it’s precedented (see above). $10.5 million based on the contracts outlined above. Blackwood is nearly as good as those goaltenders were at the time but has not fully played up to that level yet. So, if I value him at $3M per year in 2016, I can do some quick math and see that $3M in 2016, when the salary cap was $73M, is equivalent to about $3.35M given the current $81.5M salary cap. I round up to $3.5M per year accounting for high New Jersey income tax and a potential increase in NHL salary cap by 2023, which is the year this speculative contract would expire.

Regardless of the contract he signs, Blackwood is set to put on quite the performance next season, and that is something Devils fans have to look forward to.