New Jersey Devils: Revisiting Preseason Bold Predictions
The New Jersey Devils season hasn’t gone as predicted. The record might be what a lot of people thought, but the journey to get there has been anything but predictable. There are so many things that have already happened since New Year’s Day that it’s hard to keep track. Remember when Corey Crawford was here? That was wild.
Anyway, looking back at how things were working out, the beginning of the season almost felt like it was going to prove to be a really fun season. The Devils didn’t have to win on a nightly basis to have a fun team (although, it would help). They were fast, young, and full of energy. The rookies were playing well, and the veterans would eventually catch up. It sounded like the Devils could be must-see TV in the near future.
We all know what happened next.
Now, the Devils are looking at another season where a good draft pick is the goal. It’s another season where winning at the trade deadline is the goal. Once again, Devils fans are rooting for things off the ice despite the team still playing on the ice.
The predictions made before the season are always interesting to look at during the halfway point. The Devils just recently passed it, and it was rough. It’s looking like the second half could be a little bit better with no COVID outbreak to wreck the season, but it won’t exactly be a banner year. So, let’s look back at our past optimism and learn to laugh at ourselves (or be thoroughly impressed, who knows?!). We made predictions before the season started, and it’s time to look back and see what we said.
Prediction: Jack Hughes Will Be The Top-Line Center All Season
The New Jersey Devils were starting the season without Nico Hischier for the unforeseen future. He was dealing with some kind of leg injury (which turned out to be a broken fibula), and his return date was undetermined on opening night. That left the Devils with a hole at the center position that had to be filled by Jack Hughes.
He was not what anyone hoped he’d be in his rookie season, but he was given a 10-month break from traditional hockey probably for the first time in his life. He was able to focus on building his body to be ready to play in the NHL. He was talking about his muscle gains in the offseason during training camp. The excitement was real.
The season has been up and down for Hughes, but he has absolutely been the number one center this season. He plays more than 19 minutes per night, which is more than any other forward. He is second to Pavel Zacha in points with 16 in 29 games. It’s not the best number, but it’s much, much better than where he was last season.
The real issue is finding him wingers. According to Natural Stat Trick, he’s spent more than 20 minutes of ice time with nine different wingers. He’s spent the majority of his time with Kyle Palmieri and Andreas Johnsson, who might be the two most snake-bitten players on the team. He’d have more points if his wingers were more consistent and he trusted them more, but it is what he is. He’s clearly the number-one center.
Conclusion: Spot On
Prediction: Jesper Bratt Will Score A Point Per Game
Huh. This one is pretty close.
Jesper Bratt started off very slow as Jesper Bratt was trying to catch up after an extended quarantine forced him to miss the start of the season. A contract dispute kept him out of a very important training camp with a new head coach, and it took him a while to get acquainted with the new system.
He’s scored 14 points in 23 games, but he is having an incredibly hard time finding the back of the net save for one incredible overtime goal.
https://twitter.com/NJDevils/status/1373720247505711106
It’s clear that Bratt is a different player now. He’s someone the Devils can actually rely on to play in the top six for a long time. He’s one a 50-point pace despite the struggles. It’s not a point per game, but it’s much better than his career high, which is 35 points in his rookie season. He might surpass that number even with a shortened season and missing most of the first month of the season.
Bratt is someone who will likely spend the next two months on the left or right of Hughes, which will help them both get the most out of each other. Who knows what’s going to happen when Hischier returns, but expect this line to at least get an extended look. That’s going to lead to points for Bratt, and hopefully, it leads to more goals. Two is not nearly enough.
Conclusion: Falls Short
Prediction: Mackenzie Blackwood Will Be In Vezina Conversations
This one is a big miss. Mackenzie Blackwood was indisputably great to start the year. He won four of his five starts with a save percentage north of .940. Then, the wheels fell off. He lost eight of his next nine starts. Lindy Ruff seemed to trust Scott Wedgewood over Blackwood. It’s clear contracting the coronavirus really impacted him.
Now, his overall numbers are pretty much in the tank. Even though he’s bouncing back, it’s too late to save it. Of all players who’ve had at least eight starts, Blackwood ranks 32nd in save percentage, 38th in GAA, 40th in HDSV%, and only eight goalies have worse goals saved above average (all stats from NHL.com or Natural Stat Trick). The stats are outright terrible.
Blackwood is going to be fine. Carter Hart is really the goalie that people should be worried about. He’s last in GSAA in the entire league. Still, Blackwood’s stats aren’t exactly the stuff of confidence. However, he’s been playing much better as of late, and his latest game against the Penguins was a confidence boost.
He’s not going to be in Vezina conversations. It’s Connor Hellybuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Marc-Andre Fleury as the top three. Maybe there’s an argument one could make for Semyon Varlamov, but Ilya Sorokin’s eight-game winning streak hurts his street cred. Either way, Blackwood would need to win almost every start and carry the Devils to postseason contention to get back in the Vezina Trophy conversation. It’s incredibly improbable, and that’s fine. If he can avoid disaster next season, he’ll be back on this projection.
Conclusion: Off By Quite A Bit
Prediction: Andreas Johnsson Will Score 20 Goals
Oof. Big oof. This was a bad prediction. There’s no other way around it. There was a short while where Andreas Johnsson looked like a really good player for this team, but that time has come and gone. He’s no longer playing with Jack Hughes. He’s mostly playing on the fourth line, and he’s close to being a healthy scratch.
Right now, he has three goals and seven points. Let’s pretend he was going to play a full 56-game season (which he won’t). He’d have at best six goals this season if he stayed on his current pace. That is not 20 goals. That is nowhere close to 20 goals. That is like a 10-goal pace over 82 games. This is not a great move for the Tom Fitzgerald regime.
Hopefully, Johnsson isn’t a one-hit-wonder and the Devils can figure him out. They lost a good prospect in Joey Anderson and they are stuck paying him $3.4 million for the two seasons after this year. It’s not like the Devils have a problem with the cap, but since it’s likely not going up for a couple of years, spending useless money on a fourth-line player could really hurt when it’s time to pay Hughes.
Johnsson shouldn’t be completely given up on, but he needs to show a lot more to be a crucial part of this team going forward. Maybe he’s a sunk cost. Maybe the Devils are forced to buy him out just to get a spot in the lineup. Johnsson gets a modified no-trade clause in the final year of his contract, so the Devils may be looking to move him for spare parts just to get rid of the asset. Either way, this prediction was downright terrible.
Conclusion: Awful, Awful Prediction
Prediction: Travis Zajac Will Be First Domino To Fall
This one is incomplete since the first domino to fall hasn’t fallen yet. Travis Zajac still has a no-move clause, and there is no indication he wants to get traded in the middle of a pandemic. Maybe he would be willing to go to the New York Islanders since he wouldn’t have to move, he wouldn’t have to worry about visa issues, and he can play for a Stanley Cup with the man who drafted him, Lou Lamoriello.
Zajac would be a great piece in a contending team’s bottom six. He can still play against the best competition and hold his own. He showed that as he played against Sidney Crosby in the Devils’ most recent three-game set against the Penguins. This, despite being flanked by two rookies in Janne Kuokkanen and Yegor Sharangovich.
Zajac could still be the first domino to fall, but that is seeming more and more unlikely. The Devils are trying to sell multiple assets, including Kyle Palmieri, Nikita Gusev, Dmitry Kulikov, and Ryan Murray. The market seems to be barren due to the pandemic impacting profits and quarantines taking out Canadian teams for the most part.
Still, maybe this prediction can come true. Anything can happen from now until April 12th. Zajac could be the first piece moved, but it’s likely he’s going to block most moves. That leaves the Devils in a weird spot, and they might decide to just keep him for the end of the season and allow him to choose his next destination.
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