New Jersey Devils: Looking At P.K. Subban Deal Based Not On Expectations, But On Value

The New Jersey Devils acquired former Norris Trophy-winning defenseman P.K. Subban from the Nashville Predators on June 22, 2019. It’s been two full years since Ray Shero made the major move to find someone to handle the top line of this defensive unit. It was time to finally make a run with Taylor Hall on the final year of his contract and with two first-overall centers already on the roster.

Shero didn’t pay a lot for Subban because he ended up taking on his entire $9 million contract. David Poile and Shero had worked together for years, and this was another example of their relationship working wonders. The Predators needed cap space so they could sign Matt Duchene. The Devils desperately needed a top-of-the-roster defenseman, and it only helps that Subban is right handed.

Obviously, it hasn’t worked out as we all hoped. There was a month-long celebration after Subban was acquired. Then, at the end of July, the Devils officially won the offseason after trading for Nikita Gusev. This Devils team was built to make the playoffs finally. Yeah, well, the next season was a disaster. Then, the season after that was a disaster.

Subban was abjectly terrible in 2019-20, but he was actually pretty decent last season when his contract isn’t taken into account. He was a very good second-line defenseman. That’s not what the Devils wanted, but let’s look at this deal as a pure value play. Eliminate his contract from the value of it all since the Devils haven’t come close to the salary cap.

Looking at the trade in terms of assets is a little different. The Predators got defenseman Steve Santini, prospect Jeremy Davies, and two 2nd-round picks. Starting with Santini, he ended up being a pretty worthless asset to Nashville. He played just two games in the NHL before the Preds let him go to the St. Louis Blues organization.

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Davies is another story. The 24-year-old defenseman looked good for Milwaukee in his first professional season before getting into 16 NHL games last season. He’s a top-ten prospect who could make an NHL impact as early as next season. He would have gotten his NHL chance with the Devils this season, but it’s still hard to say he’d have anywhere near the impact Subban had last season.

The 2nd-round picks are where things get interesting. It was almost devastating. Arthur Kaliyev fell out of the 1st round, and the Devils held the third pick in the 2nd round. We talked about the need to grab him before the Subban trade went down. Luckily for us, the Los Angeles Kings took him before the Nashville Predators could. They ended up trading down and got Egor Afanasyev, who is also a very, very good prospect. He’d be on the Devils next year almost definitely, and if the Devils stayed in their original position, they could have drafted Bobby Brink or Nils Hoglander. That hurts.

The other 2nd-round pick was involved in the Luke Kunin trade. The Minnesota Wild took Marat Khusnutdinov with the pick. It’s way too early to figure out who he is going to be, but if the Devils still had that pick, they likely take someone like Hendrix Lapierre or Jacob Perreault because Shakir Mukhamadullin is likely available where they were projected to pick.

This P.K. Subban deal looks a little worse than it already does when looking closely at the assets given. Mostly, that 2019 2nd-round pick had insane value. Sure, Ray Shero could have galaxy brained it and took someone terrible. However, there were some incredibly talented players who will have value long after Subban retires.