New Jersey Devils: 3 Surprises From The Athletic’s Player Cards
The New Jersey Devils may have lost Corey Masisak as The Athletic’s representative covering the team, but at the same time, they promoted Shayna Goldman as a full-timer. She has been doing a lot, but she’s also changed her focus to the Devils. She clearly has her hands in multiple different projects for The Athletic’s hockey side. One of which is working with Dom Luszczyszyn on The Athletic’s player cards.
Player cards have been a staple in the analytics community for a long time. Many were clamoring for The Athletic, which has been using these stats for a long time, to make cards of their own. They are now out, and the New Jersey Devils are described in these cards.
When looking at the cards, there are some things we learn that we already know. Dougie Hamilton is a superstar defenseman that can’t be touched offensively. Maybe his defensive stats might surprise some (before his injury, he was on pace for some pretty bad defensive stats), his offense more than makes up for it. Also, he’s paired with Ryan Graves, who is well above average on the defensive side of things.
However, there were some surprises when going through the player cards. There were players that didn’t hit the peaks we expected them to, and there are others that were ranked much higher than we thought they would. It’s a great exercise to see how the analytics community sees this team, especially since they look at the players compared to the rest of the league. These aren’t analysts with rose-colored glasses. There is no reason to go too far one way or the other.
When looking at the cards, there were a few things that stood out. Here are three things that surprised us the most.
Jesper Bratt’s Valuation
It’s no secret that Jesper Bratt has been phenomenal this season, but just how good has he been? He has 32 points in 34 games and he has been the clear rock at the wing position this season. No matter where he is, that line becomes the top line on the team. He’s spent time with Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer, and Nico Hischier this season. All three have a worse Corsi For percentage without Bratt than they do with Bratt. Hughes’ is especially worse.
Since pairing with Bratt, Hughes has grown back into a superstar. He struggled for the first two weeks after returning from his shoulder injury. After the Christmas break, the Devils paired Hughes with Bratt, and they had magic together.
That makes Bratt’s hockey card not too surprising, but it’s the star value he’s been given that jumps off the page. Bratt is in the top 10% of players when it comes to offence, assists, points, and Game Score Value Added (GSVA). The player cards also give a financial value to each player. This is especially important for Bratt who is in a contract year.
The card says Bratt is worth $8.9 million this season. Oh boy… No Devils fan thought they would have another $9 million player on their hands, but that is apparently what Bratt is worth to the analytics community. Now, The Athletic does have some inflated values because it doesn’t necessarily take team building into account. For example, Connor McDavid is worth $20 million, and he’s not even allowed to make that much money. It’s still a good reference point to see what the Devils might be in for in negotiations.
Jonas Siegenthaler is a dominant defensive force
Jonas Siegenthaler is one of the best defensive defensemen this season according to his player card. He is a star-level defenseman when only looking at his play at stopping the puck from going into the net. Siegenthaler has been really good this season, but did you realize just how good he’s been?
Siegenthaler is on pace to keep his value for the rest of the season. He’s been locked into a pairing with Damon Severson, one of the Devils players who tend to be a punching bag from the fanbase. It seems like these two are making the perfect pairing. Severson is probably considered an offensive defenseman, but compared to Ty Smith and Dougie Hamilton, he’s much closer to a two-way defenseman.
Siegenthaler seems to complete Sevenrson’s game. It’s similar to what Ryan Graves does for Hamilton. The Devils really have good chemistry with the top four on the defensive front. It’s unfortunate when one of those four is out of the lineup because it’s a clear drop off.
Siegenthaler is signed for another season at $1.2 million. That is one of the best contracts the Devils have signed in this era if he keeps playing at this level. Siegenthaler has been a catalyst in stopping pucks from getting to Mackenzie Blackwood or whoever else is in net. If it comes up, they might try to re-sign him in the offseason.
Pavel Zacha is falling down the stat sheet
There are a lot of positives to take from the player cards. One that isn’t all that positive is Pavel Zacha. The former sixth-overall pick is another player that Devils fans seem to rag on, but it seems it’s well deserved. He’s a streaky player by nature, and he can go two weeks where he’s the best player on the Devils. Then, he disappears. It’s almost like clockwork.
He has 16 points in 33 games this season. He’s basically at a half a point per game. That’s fine, we suppose. Most would want a little more from Zacha, but this is at least acceptable when it comes to Zacha’s output. However, this is only acceptable if Zacha is killing penalties and playing great defensively. He was supposed to be a defensive-minded forward with scoring upside. He’s been terrible at defense according to his player card.
His defense has been fine this season. It’s below average, but that could come down to semantics about how close to average he is. Where things get scary is his projection. He’s expected to be one of the worst defensive forwards in the league. That would be devastating, especially if he returns to a pairing with Nico Hischier after his bout with COVID-19.
Next. Which Players Can Make 2026 Olympics?. dark
He is expected to be a 20-goal scorer, and he’s projected to get to 49 points. A little luck could put him over 50 points. Anyone and everyone would sign up for a 50-point season from Zacha, but that would assume he’s still progressing on the defensive end. If he’s costing the Devils just as many goals as he’s scoring, then he will eventually be a net negative.