The Framework of a Deal
Early AFP Analytics models suggest a six-year extension worth $48 million for the Devils' current restricted free agent Luke Hughes. That would run through July 1, 2031. The structure places Hughes at an $8 million AAV, directly in line with Jack Hughes’ contract.
Half of the contract would come in the form of $24 million in signing bonuses, prorated at $4 million annually. Performance bonuses could add up to $3.225 million per season, pushing his earnings closer to the $10–11 million range if he hits elite offensive benchmarks. For the Devils, the key figure remains the fixed $8 million cap hit, which offers cost certainty while the salary cap continues to climb.
Value Against the Market
Comparables shape the conversation. Quinn Hughes signed for six years at $7.85 million AAV back in 2021. That contract has become a bargain as Quinn Hughes produces at 1.20 points per game. Cale Makar’s six-year, $9 million AAV deal is arguably the league’s most valuable non-entry-level contract.
Slotting Luke Hughes at $8 million AAV puts him directly between Makar and Quinn Hughes in cost efficiency relative to expected output. For the Devils, that means an above-market ceiling if Hughes reaches his projected pace.
Statistical Projections
Through his first full seasons, Hughes has displayed an emerging blend of offensive skill and defensive awareness. Current 82-game projections show:
Scoring: 50–68 points (0.61–0.73 points per game)
Defensive Metrics: 120–155 blocks, 80–105 hits, 42–55 takeaways
Goal Output: 8–15 goals, including 2–5 on the power play
These numbers align with a top-pairing defenseman. Yet the key development point remains his ability to drive offense consistently. If Hughes elevates closer to 0.85 points per game (~70 points), he moves into Scott Niedermayer territory. This player balanced elite skating with two-way responsibility and defined an era of Devils hockey.
Sasquatch Score & WAR Context
Looking beyond raw stats, Hughes’ early Sasquatch Score (offensive puck transport plus transition impact) projects in the 6.8–7.3 range, placing him in the second tier of NHL defensemen. His WAR/GAR projections suggest he will deliver between 2.5 and 3.0 WAR annually during the extension window. By comparison, Quinn Hughes and Makar operate in the 4.0–5.0 WAR tier.
The point here is less about closing that gap immediately and more about trajectory. If Luke develops cleaner puck-handling in transition and stabilizes his reads at the defensive blue line, his WAR could rise into the 6.8- 7.3 range, placing him in the second tier of NHL defensemen. Looking beyond raw stats, Hughes’ early Sasquatch Score (offensive puck transport plus transition impact) projects in the 6.8–7.3 range, placing him in the second tier of NHL defensemen. His WAR/GAR projections suggest he will deliver between 2.5 and 3.0 WAR annually during the extension window. By comparison, Quinn Hughes and Makar operate in the 4.0–5.0 WAR tier.
The point here is less about closing that gap immediately and more about trajectory. If Luke develops cleaner puck-handling in transition and stabilizes his reads at the defensive blue line, his WAR could rise into the elite bracket by the midpoint of the deal. At $8 million AAV, that represents surplus value. At $8 million AAV, that represents surplus value.
Cap Strategy and Team Fit
The Devils’ roster construction hinges on balance. With Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier both locked in at $8 million AAV, Jesper Bratt at $7.875 million, and Dougie Hamilton’s $9 million contract possibly coming off the books via trade or buyout in the next two seasons, the organization has room to slot Luke Hughes into the upper-middle tier.
In a rising cap environment with the ceiling expected to climb from $88 million in 2024–25 to north of $95 million by the late 2020s an $8 million cap hit for a top-pairing defender will age well. The Devils are betting not only on Luke’s growth but also on market inflation.
The Niedermayer Standard
The shadow of Scott Niedermayer looms large over any Devils defenseman with elite skating ability. Niedermayer’s blend of effortless stride, transition command, and two-way stability remains the gold standard in Newark.
Luke Hughes does not need to become Niedermayer to justify this extension. But if he evolves into a 65–70 point defenseman who logs 23–25 minutes a night while holding his own in defensive metrics, he will secure his place in Devils history on his own terms.
Final Word
The Hughes extension is about timing and projection. Sign him now, and the Devils secure cost certainty before his production takes a leap. Wait too long, and the market could push him into the $10–11 million bracket.
At six years and $48 million, the deal represents a calculated wager: the Devils buy Luke Hughes’s growth curve, while Hughes secures financial stability with room to cash in again at age 28. For a franchise aiming to sustain contention, it is exactly the type of smart, forward-looking contract that has defined Fitzgerald’s tenure.
If Luke Hughes develops into the player many scouts believe he can be, this contract will not just anchor the Devils’ blue line it could anchor their championship window.