Lane Hutson is having an incredible rookie season. And honestly, it's a major surprise to everyone outside of Montreal. Canadiens fans have a habit of overselling their prospects and young players, and many outside of Quebec thought the former second-round pick was just another overhyped player that benefitted from his zip code.
Hutson has been anything but overhyped. He is already one of the 10 best offensive defensemen in the league. It's still a relatively small sample size, but he's tied for seventh in the league with 32 points at his position. He has more points than Rasmus Dahlin, Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Dougie Hamilton, and he's tied with Evan Bouchard. And most importantly to this argument, he's way ahead of Luke Hughes in points.
Despite Canadiens' fans attestment, Devils defenseman Luke Hughes is better than Calder Trophy candidate Lane Hutson.
Truly, that's great for him. As much as the hype has surrounded Lane Hutson, he seems like a good player to be a star in this league. However, that's just off the ice. On the ice, there are still major issues. But we'll get into that in a moment.
This argument has not come out of nowhere. Canadiens fans have been trying to pound the drum that Hutson was a better prospect than Hughes despite nobody outside of Montreal ranking him even close. Even The Athletic's Corey Pronman's U23 rankings just this past offseason had Luke Hughes ranked sixth and Hutson ranked 87th. Do we agree with those rankings? Not necessarily, but the argument for why he was ranked so low still exists with ho Hutson is playing today.
"There is no doubting Hutson's offense — the doubt comes down to his defense. He's a small defenseman without high-end feet or physicality, which is a major red flag in his NHL projection. "Corey Pronman, The Athletic
So that's why the conversation this weekend has been interesting. It started with our criticism of an article on Hutson that said his defense was "underrated."
Guys... Hutson is incredible offensively... on his way to being top five offensive defensemen... but he's awful defensively. He's allowed the seventh most high-danger chances at 5v5 and has the sixth worst xG against. Let him be great at offense. This is just not true. https://t.co/RVlIg1m6Q9
— Pucks and Pitchforks (@pitchforkedpuck) January 11, 2025
Those numbers are real. According to Natural Stat Trick, he's now tied for fifth in the league with 161 high-danger chances against. He's been on the ice for 36 goals for and 35 goals against. His team is allowing basically as many goals to the other team as he's helping them score. Yes, there are other factors involved (goalies, forward value, situation, etc.), but it's the easiest way to show impact in today's NHL that everyone can understand.
Meanwhile, Hughes is in a similar situation, with 20 goals for and 19 against, but the situations Hughes has been in are very different. He's also only allowed 99 high-danger chances, so there's some save percentage luck that isn't coming for Hughes (even though Markstrom has been incredible this season).
So let's dive into the comparison numbers. Let's start with counting stats, where Hutson has his best argument. He has 2.88 goals for per 60 minutes, while Hughes has just 1.96. This is on-ice scoring with these two on the ice. Good news for Hutson lovers, but it goes downhill from here.
When looking at the advanced numbers, Hughes is actually better offensively than Hutson. He's just been really unlucky. Hughes has over 3 xG per 60. Hutson is hitting at 2.79 xG per 60. So according to the most popular offensive advanced stat, the Devils should be scoring more with Hughes on the ice than the Canadiens score with Hutson.
Now let's take a look at the defensive stats. With Hutson on the ice, the Canadiens are getting scored upon 2.8 times per 60 minutes. With Hughes on the ice, the Devils are allowing 1.76 GA/60. Hutson is allowing a full goal more than Hughes. As far as advanced defensive metrics, Hutson's xGA/60 is 2.91 and Hughes sits here with 2.15.
Let's take a look at chances. Defensemen can only do so much to avoid goals, but they can do a lot to stop high-danger chances. Hughes is on the ice for 12.84 high-danger chances for every 60 minutes of ice time, and Hutson has 11.83. Hutson, the guy we're hearing arguments that is "worlds better" or "20X better" (both real responses) than Hughes, is actually worse in the offensive stats, which is where he even has a small argument.
When looking at defense, Hughes is on the ice for fewer than 10 HDCA/60 (9.41 to be exact). Hutson is on the ice for 12.55. Hutson is 16th in terms of starting defensemen (at least 400 minutes played) when it comes to how many high-danger chances he's giving up. Luke Hughes is 141st.
The Devils have the better player right now. We can't predict the future, but this conversation isn't close in 2025. At the end of this season, Hutson is going to end up at the same exact place as Hughes did last season, in third place for the Calder Trophy.